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Dear Shareholder:
Domestic
and foreign stock
markets pulled back
sharply in the second
quarter. The pull back
brought an end to a
thirteen month rally
that saw the S&P 500
rise almost 80% above
its March 2009 low.
Developments that
contributed to the pull
back included a
stubbornly high
unemployment rate and a
still struggling real
estate market here at
home, and, on the
foreign front, a
European debt crisis and
a slowing Chinese
economy. For the
quarter, the S&P 500
posted a -11.4% return,
while the EAFE Index of
foreign, developed
market stocks turned in
a -14% return. For U.S.
investors, the decline
in European stock prices
was magnified by a
strengthening of the
dollar relative to the
EURO.
Despite its >30%
exposure to foreign
stocks, the Stock Fund
posted a -11.2%
quarterly return,
outperforming its S&P
500 benchmark by 20
basis points. The Income
Fund turned in a 6.5%
return vs. 5.3% for its
benchmark, the Citigroup
Broad Investment Grade
Index. Both funds
continued to post strong
1-, 3-, 5- and 10- year
returns.
The Trustees of
Donations (TOD) would
once again remind DIT
participants of the
importance of keeping
their long term
investment objectives in
mind and of allocating
their assets
accordingly. The TOD
continues to recommend
an investment allocation
of 45% to the Income
Fund and 55% to the
Stock Fund. DIT
participants are
responsible for
maintaining the Income
Fund / Stock Fund
balances of their agency
funds.
As
always,
the TOD welcomes invitations from EDOM parishes and
affiliated organizations
to discuss existing or
prospective investments
in the DIT. A meeting
with TOD representatives
can be arranged by
calling the DIT's
Investment Coordinator,
Mr. Richard Blakney, at
(617) 482-4826 ext. 557
or by emailing him at
rblakney@diomass.org.
The
following commentary is
by Philadelphia
International Advisors,
one of the DIT’s foreign
stock managers.
Heightened concern over
worsening macro economic
headwinds drove global
equity markets sharply
lower in the second
quarter. Shrugging off
better than expected
first quarter corporate
earnings, the markets
focused instead on the
possible future
implications of Europe’s
sovereign credit crisis,
the government
engineered slowdown in
China, and a growing
number of less positive
economic releases. With
memories of the sudden
and severe downturn in
late 2008 still fresh,
projections of a
“double-dip” began to
proliferate and equities
sold off, ending the
quarter at their lowest
levels this year. Every
sector of the market
fell, although the
defensive consumer and
healthcare groups kept
their losses to single
digits. The worst
sector was energy (down
22.7%), which reacted to
signs of slowing
economic momentum,
specifically in China,
which has accounted for
a significant percentage
of demand growth in
recent years. Not
surprisingly, BP led the
industry lower, as the
Gulf disaster knocked
off nearly half its
market value and
accounted for 92 basis
points of the overall
drop in the MSCI EAFE
Index. Materials stocks
also reacted poorly to
evidence of slower
Chinese growth and
declined 18.2%.
Financial stocks dropped
17.2%, and were
particularly hard hit in
the financially stressed
southern European
countries. Currency
played an especially
large role in regional
returns during the
quarter. In local
currency terms, European
markets were the top
performing region, but
on a US dollar basis,
Europe was the worst,
with a 15.8% decline.
Similarly, Japanese
stocks declined 14.8% in
local terms, but yen
appreciation against the
dollar made it the
region with the smallest
decline – down 10.1%.
Overall, the currency
effect on EAFE
performance during the
period was about -2.8%,
bringing the return for
the EAFE Index to
-13.98% for the quarter.
Your PIA managed
portfolio didn’t avoid
losses, but declined by
a more modest amount
over the quarter. The
primary reason for the
favorable comparisons
was good stock selection
in the two largest
countries – Japan and
the UK. Our emerging
market stocks also added
value, and European
performance was in line
with the regional
index. On a sector
basis, we enjoyed good
relative returns in most
sectors, with the best
comparatives coming in
energy, industrials, and
utilities stocks.
Concern over the
sustainability of the
global economic recovery
has been reinforced by a
recent flurry of
negative economic news,
emanating from the US,
Europe, and China.
Figures suggest global
demand is slackening,
and manufacturing
indicators suggest
slowing momentum –
especially in the US and
China. On top of these
indicators, investors
remain concerned over
the impact of Europe’s
austerity measures on
growth in 2011. Despite
its diminished momentum,
we think the world
economy remains in a
sustained recovery.
While activity will
decelerate, economists
still expect continued
economic growth into
2011, with slow growth
in Europe, moderate
growth in the US, and
strong expansion in Asia
(with China’s growth
“slowing” to 8-9%). The
drop in equity values
this year seems to more
than discount the
downward shift in GDP
growth. Valuations are
relatively low in most
foreign developed
markets, and within
select markets
interesting
opportunities exist for
investors willing to
look beyond near term
uncertainty. We are
finding these largely in
select financial and
economically sensitive
sectors. |